It's All Over...Finally!- Final Oscar Predicitons

I've been watching or covering the Oscars with varying degrees since 1998. And I can say with certainty, this is the most wide open race I've ever seen.
The amount of blood on the floor, the amount of money and mud thrown around, and the sheer numbers of different frontrunners has been startling. And with each new revelation or each new award we start to think of the possible scenarios. At this point, our fingernails are chewed clean off.


Sure there have been other tight races: 2009's "The Hurt Locker" vs. "Avatar," 2004's "Million Dollar Baby" vs. "The Aviator," and 1998's "Saving Private Ryan" vs. "Shakespeare in Love," but this year is seems different.
This year there are an endless array of possibilities from who will win Best Director and Best Actress to which films people love compared to what they merely respect.
Will Ben Affleck and "Argo" continue their sweep of public sympathy for the Director "snub," or will "Lincoln" outsmart its way to the top? Can "Life of Pi" dominate the awards like its quietly been dominating the world wide box office? Actors love "Silver Linings Playbook," but will the rest of the Academy?
Will a James Bond theme song finally win an award? There are tight races from top to bottom from production design to sound editing.

So here's my guesses and ideas about what may happen on Sunday night. Will some of them be wrong? Yes! And thank god for that because without the surprises....things get boring.

See picks on the next page....




Best Actor- Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
                   Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
                   Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables"
                   Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"
                   Denzel Washington "Flight"

Analysis: The nominees list this year is so strong that it seems surprising that it's such a non-contenst for the winner. Since the day anyone saw the film it's been clear that this race was over....Daniel Day-Lewis will be the first actor to win three Best Actor trophies. The quiet strength, the voice, the command, it's all his, and with "Lincoln" looking to lose in a number of other categories the Academy will want to reward it somewhere...

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Could Win: Nobody
Should Win: Bradley Cooper or Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"
                     Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
                     Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
                     Naomi Watts "The Impossible"
                   Quevenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Analysis: All season long it looked like this race would be a battle between the young, hot, up-and-comers Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Both headline and command their Best Picture-nominated films, both are on the brink of superstardom, and (as usually helps with the Academy voters) their both gorgeous.
But then something happened.
"Zero Dark Thirty" became the town pariah. Too much torture? Possibly leaked information? A tough, unapologetic woman leading the charge of Hollywood directors getting too big for her britches in the male dominated world of film? I digress.
But with Chastain's fire seemingly cooled and Lawrence's charisma-charged, star burning ever more brightly, would she have any competition?
Enter 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva the stalwart French icon of stage and screen. Her haunting performance as a aging stroke victim facing the dying of the light is so controlled and so gut-wrenching that no film critic could deny her this year, but will the voters? Riva's had a late surge with her winning the BAFTA two weeks ago, but will the precarious nature of the film stop some voters from watching? Many are starting to see a Lawrence win as "too much too soon" while with Riva this is looking like a last chance. I think Lawrence's biting star turn still has it despite her the Frenchwoman's late victories. "Silver Linings Playbook" has to win something, but it'll be close.

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin "Argo"
                Robert De Niro "Silver Linings Playbook"
                Philip Seymour Hoffman "The Master"
                Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
                Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"

Analysis: In this battle of five former winners, it seems anything could happen. Waltz won the BAFTA and the Globe, but "Django Unchained" has been as MIA as "Zero Dark Thirty" in recent weeks. Arkin is in the Best Picture frontrunner, but his screen time is minimal. Hoffman is a de facto lead of his film, and won the Critics Award, but did enough people really love "The Master"? De Niro has been campaigning more than I ever thought he would or could. From crying on Katie Couric's couch to doing every Q&A possible, he wants it...badly. After years of phoning it in, is he ready for his third win?
        In this case, I think SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones is going to win if for no other reason than maybe voters found him to be a charismatic light in otherwise pretty austere film.

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
Could Win" Robert De Niro "Silver Linings Playbook"
Should Win: Jones....Matthew McConaughey in stunning write-in vote for "Magic Mike"? Hey, a man can always dream.
                            
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams "The Master"
                                      Sally Field "Lincoln"
                                      Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
                                      Helen Hunt "The Sessions"
                                      Jackie Weaver "Silver Linings Playbook"
                                      
Analysis: Just ask Jennifer Hudson. Sometimes all it takes is one song to win you a little gold man. After winning almost every award possible, it looks like Anne Hathaway's dying, consumption-riddled prostitute and her showstopper "I Dreamed a Dream" are going to carry her all the way. And with good reason. She owns the moment in every sense, and...frankly because there isn't any other compelling reason to give it to any one else. Her closest competition is two-time winner Sally Field, and if she wins her third on her third nomination that might be a tad bit of overkill. In another year, I'd love to say that Helen Hunt's warm, open-hearted, and naked performance in "The Sessions" would have enough juice to win, but she's her film's only nomination. Adams and Weaver are just lucky to be at the party. Seriously though, where are Nicole Kidman in "The Paperboy" or Emily Blunt in "Looper"?

Will Win/Should Win: Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Could Win: eh....maybe Sally Field.....

Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
               Beasts of the Southern Wild
                                        Life of Pi
                                        Lincoln
                    Silver Linings Playbook

Analysis: This is an incredibly tough 3-way race. "Argo" in its steamrolling won the WGA award and has so much momentum along with some Hollywood thrills that it could take it. "Lincoln" has the big name writer, the genius Tony Kushner, the beautiful, brainy language, and the big speeches, but maybe they just don't love it enough. Maybe this is the place where David O. Russell finally gets recognized? It would make it easier to vote for someone else in director if he won here. I'm going with "Argo" because I can imagine that the voters don't want "Argo" to only win Best Picture. But I really hope it's "Lincoln."

Will Win: Chris Terrio "Argo"
Should Win: Tony Kushner "Lincoln"
Could Win: Kushner or David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"


Best Original Screenplay: Amour
                                       Django Unchained
                                       Flight
                                       Moonrise Kingdom
                                       Zero Dark Thirty

Analysis: In another contentious race, in one corner you have popular past writing winners Quentin Tarantino and Mark Boal for "Django" and "Zero Dark Thirty" respectively. In the other Michael Haneke. QT and Boal split most of the critics prizes (QT for the BAFTA and the Globe and Boal the WGA), but Haneke's profile has been raised incredibly since nominations. Plus "Amour" won't go home with only Foreign Film. It's just that good.

Will/Should Win: Michael Haneke "Amour"
Could Win: Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty" or Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
                                   
Best Director: Michael Haneke "Amour"
                      Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
             David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
                      Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
              Benh Zeitlin "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Analysis: With the now omnipresent Ben Affleck not in the mix, this award in some ways feels like a runner-up award for Best Picture. Most would easily think Spielberg with the high nomination count for "Lincoln" and the overwhelming critical praise, but when it comes down to it the film is seen as a screenwriting and acting triumph rather than its direction. Actors love David O. Russell, and without a compelling narrative to be built around other names, they could reward "Silver Linings" here. Ang Lee is the star of his film, and with such an intense degree of difficulty they could reward him handsomely for this spellbinding achievement. I'm going with Lee, but if Spielberg wins look for "Lincoln" to win the big one.

Will Win: Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
Could Win: Steven Spielberg "Lincoln" or David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
Should Win: Flip a coin Ang Lee or Haneke. 

Best Picture: Amour
                  Argo
                  Beasts of the Southern Wild
                  Django Unchained
                  Life of Pi
                  Lincoln
                  Les Miserables
                 Silver Linings Playbook
                 Zero Dark Thirty

Analysis: Let's start with the one's to kick out. "Amour"...too foreign."Beasts"....to indie. "Django" and "Zero Dark"....too controversial. "Les Mis"....waaayyy too divisive. "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" have big nomination counts and have their ardent admirers, but maybe not enough true love. "Silver Linings" has come on strongly at the end, but is that just Harvey Weinstein's publicity team throwing money at something that won't take? "Argo" has become the one to beat. It has won virtually everything along the way, and since Affleck's directing snub has turned on the mojo to bulldozer through the awards. A genuinely tricky race, but it's still looking like "Argo" for the win.

Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln, Life of Pi
Should Win: Lincoln

Other categories:

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: "Life of Pi"
Could Win: "Skyfall"
Should Win: "Anna Karenina" or "Skyfall"

Best Costume Design:
Win/Should Win: "Anna Karenina"
Could Win: In a stunning upset "Mirror, Mirror"

Best Film Editing:
Will Win: "Argo"
Could Win: "Life of Pi" and "Zero Dark Thirty"
Should Win: "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Production Design:
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: "Life of Pi" or "Lincoln"
Should Win: "Anna Karenina"

Best Original Score:
Will Win: "Life of Pi"
Could Win: "Lincoln"
Should Win: "Skyfall" or "Anna Karenina"

Best Original Song:
Will Win/Should Win: Adele "Skyfall"
Could Win: N/A

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win/Should Win: "Les Miserables"
Could Win: "Life of Pi," "Skyfall"
Should Win Too: "Skyfall"

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: "Life of Pi"
Could Win: "Skyfall"
Should Win: "Skyfall"

Best Make-up/Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win: "Les Miserables" 
Could Win: "The Hobbit"

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win/Should Win: "Life of Pi"
Could Win: N/A

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win: "Brave"
Could Win: "Wreck-It Ralph"
Should Win: "Paranorman"

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: "Searching For Sugarman"
Could Win: "The Gatekeepers"
Should Win: "How To Survive a Plague"

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win/Should Win: "Amour"
Could Win: N/A

Short Films: I've actually seen a handful of the Animated shorts, but I haven't seen any of the Live Actions or Docs, so these are based on word-of-mouth, and publicity materials

Documentary Short: Inncoente
Live Action Short: Curfew
Animated Short: Paperman


Who are you hoping will win? What do you hope gets shut-out? Any surprises you would love to see? Or Oscar party plans?

Leave them below in the comments. 

Happy Oscar Sunday everyone!